The Economic Impact of U.S. Trade With Cuba on Canadian Exports

Terry L. Maris, PhD

This paper evaluates the extent to which U.S. exports to Cuba over the past five years have adversely impacted Canadian agricultural and food exports to Cuba. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the effectiveness of the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000 which legalized the sale of United States food and medical supplies to Cuba. During this period, U.S. exports to Cuba have grown to approximately $1 billion while concurrently Canadian agriculture and food exports have declined by more than 60 percent.

Utilizing data from the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade and other government agencies, the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Commerce, and personal interviews with senior officials of the Canadian, United States, and Cuban governments a profound shift in the North American trading relationship will be defined and explained. The potential effect of the passage of the Agricultural Export Facilitation Act of 2005 will also be discussed. The results of this study suggest that the beneficiaries of the scenarios reviewed will be U.S. agricultural and food producers and exporters as well as the Cuban government. Canada's exports to Cuba are projected to continue their decline under a status quo scenario and to dramatically worsen if U.S. trade sanctions are lessened or eliminated entirely.

(Published in the proceedings of the International Academy of Business and Public Administration Disciplines, 3, (1), 817-830)